Carsten Nickel is a Managing Director with Teneo in London. Previously based in Brussels and Berlin, he co-launched the firm’s political risk advisory service in 2013.
Carsten helps companies and investors anticipate and manage the impact of geopolitics on their businesses. As Deputy Director of Research, he coordinates Teneo’s global political risk coverage, its team of analysts and key client relationships. He is also a regular commentator for a variety of media outlets.
Prior to joining Teneo, Carsten was an analyst in the Europe practice of Eurasia Group. Earlier, he worked for a member of the German Bundestag in Berlin.
Carsten holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford and a master’s degree from the LSE. He teaches at Sciences Po Paris.
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What to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team
Foreword: The Global Year Ahead As the dust settles on a momentous U.S. election and the incoming administration takes shape, the geopolitical landscape for 2025 is already coming into focus. Against this backdrop, our team of analysts once again explores the critical global trends and regional hotspots demanding attention in…
December 10, 2024 - By Manji Cheto, Anne Frühauf, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Meghan McDonough, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Jon B. Alterman, James Crossland, Nate Tamarin
EU Elections 2024 Spotlight: Promises and Risks Abound for the Future of Defence in Europe
The European Parliament (EP) elections of 6-9 June and the appointment of a new European Commission by year-end promise to be consequential for a wide range of policy issues. In this joint briefing, our geopolitical advisory and EU teams reflect on the growing importance of defence in the European political…
May 7, 2024 - By Carsten Nickel, Benoit Cormier
Europe: Even Before U.S. Polls, A Complicated Outlook for Ukraine Support
If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical…
January 30, 2024 - By Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa
What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team
Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…
December 6, 2023 - By Anne Frühauf, Emily Stromquist, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Shamaila Ashraf, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Jon B. Alterman, Meghan McDonough, James Crossland, Orson Porter
UK: Implications of Sunak’s Cabinet Reshuffle
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has reshuffled his cabinet in what is likely to be the last major change of the Conservative front bench ahead of the general election expected before the end of 2024. The return of former prime minister David Cameron as foreign secretary came as a major surprise.
November 13, 2023 - By Carsten Nickel, Matthew Grainger
What to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team
A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…
December 14, 2022 - By Anne Frühauf, James Brady, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Meghan McDonough, Jon B. Alterman
EU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in Sight
The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications…
October 31, 2022 - By Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa
EU: Policy Responses to Energy Crisis Will Likely Remain Reactive
EU governments are doing their best to prepare for a winter of lower Russian gas supplies, but global price dynamics might strain European economies. National-level measures to protect consumers and firms will remain the default response, although their growing cost will increase the popularity of policy options such as windfall…
August 25, 2022 - By Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Emily Stromquist
