Nicholas Watson leads Teneo’s political risk coverage for Spanish-speaking Latin America.
Nicholas has over 15 years’ experience creating and leading analytic teams dedicated to providing exceptional, actionable political intelligence, bespoke consulting and advisory work for a wide range of corporate, financial and governmental clients.
Prior to joining Teneo, Nicholas was the Analysis Practice Leader for Latin America at the business risk consultancy Control Risks. Previously, Nicholas worked as a field researcher examining violent crime and police reform for a leading NGO in Brazil.
Nicholas received a master’s degree in Latin American politics from the Institute of Latin American Studies (ILAS) in London, and also holds a first-class honours degree in Spanish from King’s College London (KCL). Nicholas was based in Bogotá from 2012-2015, and has also lived, worked and studied in Mexico, Brazil, and Cuba.
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What to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team
Foreword: The Global Year Ahead As the dust settles on a momentous U.S. election and the incoming administration takes shape, the geopolitical landscape for 2025 is already coming into focus. Against this backdrop, our team of analysts once again explores the critical global trends and regional hotspots demanding attention in…
December 10, 2024 - By Manji Cheto, Anne Frühauf, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Meghan McDonough, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Jon B. Alterman, James Crossland, Nate Tamarin
Mexico: Implications of a Historic Presidential Election and the Outlook Beyond
Mexico is heading towards its biggest and most polarized election to date on 2 June, which will likely result in the first female president in the country’s history. The choice is between frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City and close ally of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador…
May 16, 2024 - By Nicholas Watson, Roberto Cabral Duran
LATAM Pulse 4.22.24
This week, Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa is celebrating a mostly positive set of results from a public referendum. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s regime faces a new test as the opposition shows unexpected resilience, while the return of sanctions looms. In Mexico, presidential frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum will come under renewed scrutiny in the…
April 22, 2024 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 3.25.24
This week, Venezuela’s opposition coalition has come up with a surprise presidential candidate, but the path to the July election is still deeply uncertain. The protracted follow-up to a high-profile crime continues to present Brazil’s government with risks and opportunities. In Argentina, the political arena remains key to the future…
March 25, 2024 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
Weekly Political Compass 12.11.23
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at talks between Venezuela and Guyana. Meanwhile, turnout in the Hong Kong district elections was low, the increase in Turkey’s minimum wage is expected…
December 11, 2023 - By Nicholas Watson
What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team
Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…
December 6, 2023 - By Anne Frühauf, Emily Stromquist, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Shamaila Ashraf, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Jon B. Alterman, Meghan McDonough, James Crossland, Orson Porter
Weekly Political Compass 11.13.23
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Argentina’s presidential elections. Meanwhile, the presidents of China and the U.S. will meet, a former PM returns as British foreign secretary, Brazil is…
November 13, 2023 - By Nicholas Watson
LATAM Pulse 10.2.23
This week, Chile’s constitution-writing process moves to a new stage amid uncertainty as to whether the current draft can win approval without major modifications. In Mexico, presidential favorite Claudia Sheinbaum is towing the line of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on tax reform. Revenue-raising measures should go before Brazil’s…
October 2, 2023 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 5.30.23
This week, expect political noise in Mexico as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) looks to wrest two states from opposition control ahead of the 2024 elections, with the opposition likely hoping for a damage limitation exercise. Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is hosting what has been described as…
May 30, 2023 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 5.15.23
This week, Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso could be impeached – unless he exercises his right to dissolve the legislature before it can remove him: the political outlook appears complex however events of this week evolve. Brazil’s government continues to face challenges in Congress. Argentina’s inflation problem is getting worse with…
May 15, 2023 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 1.23.23
This week, Peru continues to face severe volatility. Meanwhile, a regional summit in Argentina marks the first trip abroad of Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva since his recent inauguration. Bilateral agreements between Argentina and Brazil may be more substantive than anything emerging from the summit. Separately, Argentina’s debt…
January 23, 2023 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 12.19.22
This week, Peru remains in crisis amid congressional resistance to bringing elections forward. In Brazil, there will be another attempt to vote for a spending cap waiver ahead of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s inauguration on 1 January. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should release the…
December 19, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
What to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team
A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…
December 14, 2022 - By Anne Frühauf, James Brady, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Meghan McDonough, Jon B. Alterman
LATAM Pulse 12.12.22
This week, Peru’s political situation remains unsettled as new President Dina Boluarte tries to rein in protests that followed the ousting of Pedro Castillo. In Brazil, an increase to the government spending cap continues to work its way through Congress. Meanwhile, there may not be time to approve contentious electoral…
December 12, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 11.14.22
This week, Mexico’s electoral reform has mobilized hundreds of thousands of people who oppose what is seen as a regression in electoral transparency and independence. Brazil’s political transition could see ministerial appointments start. In Peru, tensions remain high as President Pedro Castillo awaits the arrival of a regional delegation to…
November 14, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 11.7.22
This week, Brazil’s transition takes some initial steps following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s election victory and the dismantling of post-vote truckers’ protests. Colombia’s tax reform should be signed into law ready to take effect from January 2023. In Chile, the governing coalition faces a test of strength in Congress…
November 7, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 10.17.22
This week, trade-related uncertainty in Mexico will continue as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) increasingly opts for loyalty over technical expertise. In Brazil, there was no clear winner in yesterday’s presidential debate less than a fortnight before the run-off vote. Chile marks three years since the mass protests and…
October 17, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 10.3.22
This week, Brazil’s presidential election campaign resets in the wake of a closer-than-anticipated first-round result yesterday, 2 October. In Cuba, the regime is in full crisis mode after days of protests over electricity outages caused by Hurricane Ian. The US will be getting down to details as Colombia’s President Gustavo…
October 3, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
LATAM Pulse 9.6.22
This week, there is apprehension in Brazil about the politicization of tomorrow’s Bicentennial Independence Day military parades. Chile’s constitutional reform process is not over despite the overwhelming rejection of the new constitutional draft by voters last weekend. In Argentina, the attempted assassination of Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK) will keep political…
September 6, 2022 - By Nicholas Watson, Mario Marconini
